Pensacola Discussion Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

This is a forum based out of Pensacola Florida.


You are not connected. Please login or register

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

+6
Hallmarkgard
dumpcare
Sal
RealLindaL
2seaoat
Hospital Bob
10 posters

Go to page : Previous  1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 20 ... 26  Next

Go down  Message [Page 14 of 26]

Sal

Sal

I was enjoying that Storm2K site at first, but there is way too much conflicting information and noise to make any sense of any it.

The truth is that any tropical system that makes its way into the Gulf this time of year is potentially problematic and bears watching.

I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

2seaoat



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_force

2seaoat



This is probably the best explanation, of course based on the premise that this weather has not gained strength....that is the key.

Floridatexan

Floridatexan


I hate to say it, Seaoat, but it looks like #8 is headed for Pensacola.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

latest update (5 PM)...

Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/292057.shtml

They still seem very confident the storm will curve back toward the Big Bend/Cedar Key.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Okay now.  If the forecast is valid,  we're now about 72 hours from landfall.
Let's see how close they can get to being within 115 miles of where the center of it goes in.

If seaoat has thrown his donkeys and darts using the Coriolus Effect,  then the NHC forecasters will miss it by about 1000 miles.  Man is that ever going to throw their average off.
That would be like playing 18 holes and shooting a score of 30 on one hole.


The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 14 205801W_NL_sm

Sal

Sal

If anything, this loser is less organized than yesterday.

2seaoat



That would be true if the winds were stronger......the physics says that light winds for a longer time period will not allow the Coriolis impact to be delayed and the inverse fishhook will not set up, but again the weaker the storm and the continued flatter the distance from the earth's midpoint you will not get the northeast turn, but in fact it will continue further West, however if it intensifies the Coriolis effect will dominate, but the experts have repeatedly missed on the intensity and assumed it would intensify over the Gulf, not taking into account the weak state before going over Cuba.....It is obvious......Texas.

Dartboard is not going to be Tampa.......Sal is safe, there are models which have historically worked in this very situation......the more skilled dart throwers understand the same, and as we built forecasting models in manufacturing in the mid seventies, it never became more true than garbage in and garbage out......keep it simple stupid.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:That would be true if the winds were stronger......the physics says that light winds for a longer time period will not allow the Coriolis impact to be delayed and the inverse fishhook will not set up, but again the weaker the storm and the continued flatter the distance from the earth's midpoint you will not get the northeast turn, but in fact it will continue further West, however if it intensifies the Coriolis effect will dominate, but the experts have repeatedly missed on the intensity and assumed it would intensify over the Gulf, not taking into account the weak state before going over Cuba.....It is obvious......Texas.

Dartboard is not going to be Tampa.......Sal is safe, there are models which have historically worked in this very situation......the more skilled dart throwers understand the same, and as we built forecasting models in manufacturing in the mid seventies, it never became more true than garbage in and garbage out......keep it simple stupid.

This individual couldn't have said it better...

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 14 Irwin-Corey-july-29-birthday

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

By the way,  in the last few pages on the stormk2 thread,  one individual says it will be "going into the armpit of Florida".  But he was referring to the Big Bend,  not P'cola.

I think the reason the Big Bend is called "the armpit of Florida" is pretty obvious.

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 14 Florida-outline-map-blank-wVGpoWE

Sal and Seaoat,  on the other hand,  are convinced that an armpit is under your wrist.  Maybe they have hair under their wrists,  who knows.

RealLindaL



Floridatexan wrote:
I hate to say it, Seaoat, but it looks like #8 is headed for Pensacola.


What are you talking about??

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 14 205252W5_NL_sm



Last edited by RealLindaL on 8/29/2016, 6:09 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Added graphic image)

RealLindaL



Sal wrote:I was enjoying that Storm2K site at first, but there is way too much conflicting information and noise to make any sense of any it.

AGREED.

RealLindaL



Sal wrote:I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

Are you in a flood zone, Sal?

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I was enjoying that Storm2K site at first, but there is way too much conflicting information and noise to make any sense of any it.

AGREED.

The one good thing that does provide are the elaborate animated track forecasts from GFS and ECMWF. I don't know where to get those elsewhere.

2seaoat



I think the reason the Big Bend is called "the armpit of Florida" is pretty obvious.


After looking at your graphic, I am beginning to believe that Pensacola might properly be called the "taint" of Florida.........

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Linda,

If that stupid thing actually does keep west, I'm gonna have a lot of egg on my face and will have to concede the whole thing to seaoat. lol

2seaoat



If that stupid thing actually does keep west, I'm gonna have a lot of egg on my face and will have to concede the whole thing to seaoat. lol


Did you even bother to read the science I provided you, or are you allergic to learning.......who a week prior to the ACA Supreme Court decision on the PNJ called the decision, the issue, and the Justice who would find it constitutional, who clearly stated that the Sandra Bland officer would be indicted, and who clearly said that Bob would change his support from Trump after declaring he was for Trump......Bob, for somebody who wants to be Tommy Skillethead, you fail to read and understand the science.....the longer this storm stay on the same latitude with weak winds, it will continue westward, and it will not turn to the Northeast until the storm intensity increases significantly which 35 mph now three days past prior models tells you the whole story.....their projections were wrong.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Okay,  I'll go ahead and concede now and get it over with.  The storm is going to Texas.  And that means hurricane forecasting is quack science,  I'm Tommy Skittlehead,  the Allman Brothers Band are racists ,  and Pensacola is an armpit.
But I still like the cheeseburgers at Jerry's.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

I wonder if we can get a giant can of aerosol deodorant to spray on this place. Or at least Fabreeze.

dumpcare



Bob wrote:latest update (5 PM)...

Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt.  There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida.  The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/292057.shtml

They still seem very confident the storm will curve back toward the Big Bend/Cedar Key.  

If it doesn't start turning north in about 36 hours and that trough goes by picks up 8 as it's starting to then 9 won't turn to the NE unless the trough coming down from the NW picks it up. It's very ragged but full of thunderstorm's and some moving ssw towards the Yucatan. Anyway if goes into Tampa seems Sal will experience the right side of it.

2seaoat



That only confirms that you have no positions, and that by the end of the week you will declare that you are a vegetarian. The science is telling us that the more sophisticated models are failing, and in fact the more simple models are actually getting this forecast correct. Therein lies my problem. At least two of the forecasts are in fact correct, and the difference is almost nine hundred miles on Monday.......pure dartboards, but if a person is thinking, and understands the science, then in fact with low winds and low intensity with a flat profile, it becomes apparent that in fact a couple of models which deal predominately with winds are actually pretty accurate.....the key is actually trying to understand the parameters of the garbage in and the garbage out.

dumpcare



Bob wrote:Okay,  I'll go ahead and concede now and get it over with.  The storm is going to Texas.  And that means hurricane forecasting is quack science,  I'm Tommy Skittlehead,  the Allman Brothers Band are racists ,  and Pensacola is an armpit.
But I still like the cheeseburgers at Jerry's.

You forgot toaster lol.

2seaoat



I am deeply concerned about what could be coming to Louisiana. This system is going to pick up a tremendous amount of moisture and if it stays low intensity, it will be disaster with record flooding......all the while people are telling Sal to buckle down.

RealLindaL



Bob wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I was enjoying that Storm2K site at first, but there is way too much conflicting information and noise to make any sense of any it.

AGREED.

The one good thing that does provide are the elaborate animated track forecasts from GFS and ECMWF.  I don't know where to get those elsewhere.

How about right here?   Just bookmark these:

ECMWF:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850

GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850


You're welcome.   Smile

RealLindaL



Bob wrote:Linda,

If that stupid thing actually does keep west,  I'm gonna have a lot of egg on my face and will have to concede the whole thing to seaoat.  lol

Bob, if that happened there'd be a helluva lot of people on the NOAA payroll with Western omelets on their faces.

IT AIN'T HAPPENING!!  I can't believe you're getting suckered in by Mr. Know-It-All.    Are you kidding me, Bob??  Tell me you're kidding.

Sponsored content



Back to top  Message [Page 14 of 26]

Go to page : Previous  1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 20 ... 26  Next

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum